7 Landmines on Atiku Abubakar’s Path to Aso Rock

By Our Political Correspondent

On paper, the presidential candidate of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, in the 2023 elections, former Vice President Atiku Abubakar has all it takes to be elected president. Of all the candidates, he is the only person who has tasted power, in Aso Rock, as vice president to President Olusegun Obasanjo between 1999 and 2007.
Thus, he carries both presidential aura and experience that no other candidate has. That is what he means when he says that he would not have to learn on the job, given Nigeria’s present predicament that requires close to a quick fix, he is right.
Paradoxically, the Aso Rock experience has become an incubus of sorts, against the background of the recycling of what his former boss, President Olusegun Obasanjo had said about him. It constitutes one of what we refer to as the eight landmines on Atiku Abubakar’s route to Aso Rock.

1. The Wike Albatross.
This is perhaps the most potent albatross, the Nyesom Wike, Governor of Rivers State, factor. Wike came second to Atiku at the primary to choose the party’s presidential candidate and that was only after an event ground coup that gave the former vice president the majority. Thereafter, a committee set up by Atiku to find him a running mate overwhelmingly recommended Wike who, naturally, expected to be given the right of first refusal.
He did not get it. Rather, Atiku picked Delta State Governor Dr. Ifeanyi Okowa. Ever since, the already shaken basement of the PDP and by extension, Atiku’s candidacy has acquired a disturbing volatility. So far, all efforts to appease Wike, appear to have failed.
The only hope now rests on the report that a reconciliation committee led by Atiku Abubakar himself and made up of 13 serving PDP Governors, will be meeting with Wike when the presidential candidate and the chairman of the party, Dr. Iyorcha Ayu return from their trips.
Wike is important because he commands considerable influence in both the PDP and the Niger Delta region; that is, aside other areas where his generosity has earned him the respect and affection of people. In addition, he is seen as a vocal promoter of equity and good conscience, something that is in short supply in the country.

2. Fall Out of Party Primaries
Prior to the debacle arising from Atiku’s choice of running mate, the conduct of the primary had already started creating divisions within the party. The fact that Atiku had tended to sideline some of the aspirants, in his post-victory consultation, was seen as a misstep, for a candidate who, ordinarily, ought to be carrying everybody along.
It is not clear if that matter has been amicably dealt with but with the presidential candidate still travelling, it is left to be seen how the issue of party unity, going into the elections, will be handled. What is not in doubt is that there is disenchantment among critical segments of the party and the 2023 election is so strategic that everybody ought to be carried along.

3. Ayu Must Go Demand

The reported demand by Wike’s supporters and some other stakeholders for the resignation of the National Chairman of the People’s Democratic Party, PDP, Dr. Iyorcha is among the knotty issues Atiku must handle. Their argument, reports say, is that the party had agreed that should the presidential candidate emerge from the north, the south would automatically produce the chairman of the party.
Besides, Wike and his allies are said to be unhappy with Ayu who they allege, was openly prejudiced during the primaries, in favor of Atiku.
While Wike and his group which also has some serving governors are said to have made Ayu’s departure their minimum condition for supporting Atiku, sources say the Atiku group has resolved to call the bluff of those demanding that Ayu step down.
This is understandable.
Atiku and Ayu are said to have been close political allies over the years. To Atiku’s associates, therefore, Ayu should be in charge to spearhead Atiku’s dream of returning to Aso Rock, this time, as president.

4. Doubts Over Atiku’s Willingness to Honor Agreements
Related to the above is the fear that, once he has been elected president, Atiku is not likely to honour agreements reached prior to being elected. One evidence for this, insiders say, is his snobbish attitude towards those who did not support his emergence at the primaries.
Another is the way he whimsically jettisoned the report/recommendation of the 17 “wise men” whom he had constituted to select his running mate. The fear, they reason, is that if he could disregard recommendations of the party leaders at the only time, he needed their support most, what will be his attitude when he no longer needs them, given that his age is likely to confine him to only one term in office?

5. The Obasanjo Angle
Social media focus on the alleged character portrayals of Atiku, by former President Olusegun Obasanjo under whom he served as vice president, seem to be resonating with a populace that has long dismissed politicians of Atiku Abubakar’s pedigree as not trustworthy. Atiku has never been tried by any court of law over any malfeasance. None has found him guilty. Yet, this albatross that he is corrupt, which nobody has proved, won’t go away.
For an electorate that sees itself as the victim of the predatory onslaught of a rapacious political class, being remotely associated with greed, treachery and corruption have a way of sticking, true or false. This is one landmine that Atiku must clear as 2023 approaches.

6. Alleged South-East. Betrayal
Many people in the South-East regard the emergence of Atiku as a betrayal by both Atiku and the PDP. They recall how in 2019,
the South-East, at the behest of the then Ohanaeze Ndigbo leadership, endorsed and backed Atiku against the APC presidential candidate, President Muhammadu Buhari, a move that was considered politically naïve. As predicted, that earned the South-East a backlash in the face of President who had unequivocally stated his leaning towards those who voted for him.
Besides, Atiku’s repudiation of the zoning principle, against his previously held position, at a time that the South-East claimed that it was its turn to produce the President, left a sour taste in the mouth. Lastly, his by-passing of the South-East to pick his running mate from the South-South is seen by some people as further marginalization of the South-East. But it is difficult to push this last point when it is acknowledged that the South-East had literally imposed a political fatwa on any person from the zone who accepts to be
running mate to another candidate. Whether or not this is sound political judgement is an entirely different point

7. Formidable Opponents
Akin to the 2019 scenario when Atiku ran against Buhari, a very popular opponent in the north, this time around, he is running against, among others, three formidable candidates, namely: Labor Party’s Peter Obi, APC’s Bola Ahmed Tinubu and NNPP’s Rabiu Kwakwanso. Peter Obi has become the cynosure of all eyes leading to the elections; Tinubu has an inestimable political machine and financial war chest while Kwankwaso is perhaps the most popular political figure in the north-west zone of the country.
That means that Atiku will have to fight his way through with all the arsenal at his disposal.
Notwithstanding the above “landmines”, no political actor will underestimate Atiku’s clout, experience and network. Over the years, he has built a dependable network of trusted allies who can be expected to push his case any time. The fact that he was vice president for eight years also implies that he can boast of a more reliable global reach and network; some of whom would have collaborated with him and therefore would find him easier to deal with.

All in all, Atiku, like other candidates, has to contend with the Peter Obi tsunami, a revolution driven by the nation’s youth who, for
all practical purposes, insist that every Nigerian must be “Obi-dient” and that the old order must change.