More Nigerians opt to be OBI-dient
7 Big Dilemmas
Social Media vs Real Politics
Youthful Energy vs the Old Reticence
Revolutionary Momentum Vs Conventional Moderation
Rainbow Coalition vs Steeply Divided Country
Small State vs Big Country
The Running Mate Dilemma
Savings Mantra Vs Big Spending
That the Peter Obi fever has gripped Nigerians is no longer in doubt. Peter Obi, presidential candidate of the Labour Party, has injected a new vibrancy into Nigerian politics. With his effortless ease and raw candour, he is redefining politics in a country that seems to be reputed more for voter apathy and elite inertia than electoral vibrancy and action.
But Obi, a leading presidential aspirant on the platform of the People’s Democratic Party before he joined the Labour Party is causing a stir among all segments of the Nigerian political landscape.
From ordinary folks to political analysts, from casual political observers to self-style pundits, from scholars to politicians and opinion moulders, the Obi explosion into national politics has jolted everyone to a fresh appreciation of the challenges ahead of Nigeria as the country prepares for the 2023 presidential elections.
What explains the Obi phenomenon?
To understand this, there is need to refresh our minds on the prevailing situation and his personal attributes
· A comatose economy, widespread insecurity all over the country and a frightening level of disunity are hallmarks of a country in decline despite claims to the contrary by the ruling All Progressive Congress party fuels the agitation for a new leadership.
· Recycling of the Old Brigade: Going into the 2023 elections, popular opinion weighs against what is considered a recycling of the old order by the two leading political parties: the All-Progressive Congress (APC) and the People’s Democratic Party (PDP). People, particularly the youth, are yearning for a generational shift, particularly away from the professional politicians whose stock-in-trade is to appear every four years for elections. Once they fail, they disappear till the next elections; if they succeed, they turn their back on the electorate; a situation that explains the comatose economy, 22 years after the return to civil rule.
· Equity and Justice: Many Nigerians subscribe to the notion that for equity and justice and by extension peace and unity, the South East zone of the country should produce the next president come 2023. Though there is no unanimity in this regard, the fact that Peter Obi comes from the zone adds to his very lofty credentials.
· Track Record: Peter Obi’s track record as Governor of Anambra State, particularly in the areas of frugality, accountability and economic management generally. Under his administration, Anambra rated high on all the competitive metrics and the SDGs. Workers received their dues and unlike other state governments that were heavily indebted, Anambra was debt-free under him. To add to that, he left a princely N75 billion in the state coffers for his successor
· The Trust Factor: through his track record, outspokenness and personal lifestyle, Peter Obi has earned the trust of many Nigerians as a credible leader with integrity and compassion. His frugal lifestyle and humility contrast sharply with the arrogance and flamboyance of many a Nigerian politician. Above all, he is not counted among the corrupt politicians
· Knowledge: Peter Obi displays a mastery of economics and economic management as only few other politicians can do. In fact, some will argue that no other presidential candidate possesses his depth of knowledge in economic matters. Those who confer bragging rights on him, in this regard, will justify it by the fact that he can point to his track record, as governor of Anambra State.
The above notwithstanding, observers believe that, as eminently qualified as Obi may be, his candidacy will have to contend with a number of paradoxes. Among the several factors that would influence his Aso Rock quest, below are five that stick out.
Social Media vs Real Politics
Going by the way Obi is trending on the social media, if an election is conducted today, many a pundit could give it to Obi. But as experience has shown, social media or public opinion could provide a mirage, a clear departure from reality. For this reason, many contend that Obi should look beyond the social media figures, to the real world of politics where, quite often, the real determinants of electoral behaviour may never be publicly stated.
Youthful Energy vs the Old Reticence
Though 60, the youth are readily more at home with him that the other candidates. He speaks the language they understand; he acts in a manner that does not alienate them. Yet, in a country where age is highly respected, the candidates of the two other parties: Ahmed Bola Tinubu of APC and Alhaji Atiku Abubakar are far older than him. In fact, the clamour is for the two to step down. How that pans out for Peter Obi is left to be seen.
Revolutionary Momentum Vs Conventional Moderation
Peter Obi represents the voice of radical action. As things stand, in the country today, he has become a Movement with people ready to swear by his name. All over the country, people defy age, gender, nationality and creed to embrace him. He is a departure from the conventional moderation that is the hallmark of our politics. Peter’s is a revolution without guns: his character and promise are his ammunition. His position would contend with conventional ethos of not rocking the boat; a world view that would retain the present rent economy; as it is said in local parlance, an economy of “monkey dey work, baboon dey chop”. Observers believe that Obi’s principled opposition to a rent economy, his transparency and total commitment to the greatest number of people rather than the parasitic elite will need to be remediated as he pushes his dream.
Rainbow Coalition vs Steeply Divided Country
The wellspring of support for Obi across the length and breadth of the country could be equated to a rainbow coalition. Driven mainly by the youth: students, celebs, the unemployed and those excluded from the social safety net, Obi is galvanizing Nigerians into an unprecedented political movement. What is more? The reported talks with Kwankwaso’s New Nigerian Peoples Party and other alienated politicians who are in search of a sanctuary team up with the Labour Party, a formidable and unbreakable team could emerge. But will this happen? To achieve the required solidarity, astute political watchers believe that the Obi team must find a way of weakening the influence of ethnicity and religion on the country’s body politic. That he must reassure other stakeholders that their interests will not be mortgaged or neglected should he be elected. As has been suggested in many quarters, one way of helping the Obi candidacy and, by extension, Nigeria is for Obi’s supporters to tone down the ethnic rhetoric which could portray him as an ethnic champion. For a country that has been steeply divided in recent years, it is left to be seen how Obi overrides this challenge.
Small State vs Big Country
Can Obi govern a big country such as Nigeria? Does successfully administering Anambra confer on Obi the ability to govern Nigeria, a country where you have a fourth of every black man in the world? Those who ask these questions believe that Obi is probably being overrated. As plausible as this position seems, Peter Obi’s camp can point to Barack Obama who never occupied any executive position before he became President of the United States, the most powerful nation and biggest economy on earth.
The Running Mate Dilemma
The place-holder strategy adopted by appointing Doyin Okupe as stop-gap vice-presidential candidate will soon be over. And Peter Obi must name a substantive candidate who would naturally come from the north. Meanwhile, Kwankwaso’s people have stated emphatically that he would be running mate to Peter Obi. So, what gives? If Peter Obi steps down for Kwankwaso, will his supporters support such a position? Wont the people of the south east regard it as a sell-out? However, it is a moot point that no candidate can win the election without the support of other sections of the country
Savings Mantra Vs Big Spending
While Obi is a stickler for saving, the reality on ground presupposes that Nigeria’s next leader will have to spend the country out of the present economic quagmire his vision has changed. Obi will certainly commit resources to the provision and empower the people. It is a holistic situation that justifies big spending, not saving money when the people are down. Should Peter Obi navigate his way through these waters, the road to the presidency will not seem as murky as it is presently because many Nigerians are becoming OBI-dient.
