The shape of post-Buhari economy

Muhammadu Buhari has less than one year now to serve as Nigeria’s president. His politics may have served some significant number of Nigerians, but his economics, without mincing words, has affected most Nigerians negatively.

Hunger is widespread in the land and within the next few days, some 19.5 million Nigerians are predicted by the Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) to face hunger. Both those who support Buhari and those who don’t support him are feeling the hunger alike, arising from inflation and insurgency that has destabilized northern Nigeria. The good thing is that less than a year from now, Buhari will give way with his failures and his successes and somebody else will try his hands at the wheels. That’s the beauty of democracy; we are not condemned to a particular leader, no matter how good or how bad.

The race for the successor is apace already. The major opposition political party, the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP), has already selected former vice president, Atiku Abubakar as its candidate for the presidency. In the run-up to the PDP convention, there had been the clamor for the party to zone its presidential ticket to the south-east geo-political zone which has been vocal in their feeling of being sidelined and therefore demanding the position for the sake of equity. But the party decided to ignore this plea and jettisoned the zoning formula for the presidency which it had used till now.

For the ruling All Progressives Party (APC), Bola Ahmed Tinubu is the man to beat. His deep pockets have been speaking for him, right from the formation of the party and the financing of Buhari’s initial campaign. Now he is demanding payback, and few will malign him on that. He already assumes the presidential ticket and has congratulated Atiku, calling him a worthy opponent for the contest. But while Tinubu remains the man to beat, it is by no means a done deal. Moshood Abiola once had the pole position in the National Party of Nigeria (NPN) in the second republic, but he ended up not getting the ticket.

Buhari remains the prime factor as to who emerges the presidential candidate of the APC. If he is in a thank-you mood, he would swing it for Tinubu. If he wants to compensate loyalty, he will hold up Vice President Osinbajo. If he wants to play politics, he would point in the direction of a south-east candidate, now that the PDP has picked a northern candidate. And if he thinks competence, he will look in the direction of Osinbajo who registered near-instant impact when he stood in as acting-president.

Amongst the top running candidates for the presidency next year, mention must be made of Peter Obi, former governor of Anambra State. Obi was a front-runner for the presidential ticket in the PDP, till he saw that the odds were stacked against his type of politics. He doesn’t believe in vote-buying which characterizes Nigerian political parties. In the political firmament, he was a strange one and when it became obvious to him that the PDP would not run on the strength of ideas and character, he quit the party and has joined Labour Party.

In the muddied pack of Nigerian politicians, Obi stands out as squeaky clean. When he first ran for the governorship of Anambra State, he never threw money around, but rather swore an oath that he would not put the state’s money to personal use. Till date, nobody has accused him of doing so, and the EFCC has not been on his tails. As governor, he was very prudent and significantly improved the lot of Anambra. He improved the road network in the state and raised the level of education bringing the state to the number one position in the nation. While other outgoing governors handed over empty vaults, Obi handed over a healthy purse and investment certificates, standing Anambra out.

Nigerian youth who have grown tired of corrupt politicians see a promise in Obi and have volunteered in significant numbers to campaign for him. It remains to be seen how far he goes with Labour Party which is a small player in the ranks.

So, what do these frontrunners have in stock for Nigeria on the economic front?

Atiku’s most elaborate statement on his agenda was issued a few days to the primaries. “I am offering myself again to provide the desired leadership. I have a history of economic reform and political transformation. As a private businessman of many years, I have a deep understanding of our economy and its challenges,” he said.

He appropriated the economic successes of the Obasanjo government in which he served as vice president and head of the economic management team. That government gave more than fair average performance on the economic front. But the challenges of the moment require more than that to get the nation out of the woods. We wait till Atiku tells us more.

Tinubu on his part, takes credit for the development of Lagos State since 1999 and promises to roll such development out nationwide if voted in as president. In addition, he promises nationwide prosperity. He however, stopped short of elaborating on how the prosperity would emerge, moreso as Lagosians remain poverty-stricken. Meanwhile, Lagos has made big strides in internal revenue generation (IGR), but what she has on ground as infrastructure barely gives credence to the quantum of funds it raises. But weaning Nigeria from the solitary diet of crude oil which Buhari’s government has already started is something significant should Tinubu take it much further. Perhaps, someday someone would come along that would give Nigerians value for money.

Peter Obi who has an outsider’s chance in the election, promises to turn Nigeria from a consumption economy to a producing economy. He promises that within four years he would have turned the nation around. He would take out poverty by engaging people and investing in them, he promises. A key driver in his agenda is investment in education. Obi says that he would give Nigerians quality education and then export Nigerian graduates. Obi’s promises are not woolly. But would he get there? Would the youth that support him get their voters cards and come out to vote? Would the powers that are, allow him reach there? Would there be a free and fair contest?