Between the torn umbrella and the scattered broom: Will the crisis in PDP,  APC give Obi, Kwankwaso the edge?

By Simeon Ogoegbulem, Abuja

The ruling All Progressive Congress (APC), the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) and the Labour Party (LP) as well as the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) are set for major battle as the campaign for the 2023 general elections kicks off. The Independent National Electoral Commission (INEC) has set today (September 28, 2022) as the official flag off date for commencement of political campaigns for the 2023 general elections scheduled to hold between February and March, 2023.

Beside the four major political parties, 15 other registered political parties are also primed to participate in the upcoming elections. However, all eyes are on the three leading political parties.

However, the center seem not to hold any longer for the ruling All Progressive Congress (APC) and the main opposition Peoples Democratic Party (PDP). Since the two political parties concluded their national conventions that produced the presidential flag bearers of their respective parties, the Falcon can no longer hear the Falconer and things seem to have fallen apart.

While the ruling APC produced Sen. Bola Ahmed Tinubu as its presidential candidate for the 2023 general elections, the main opposition PDP threw up former Vice President Atiku Abubakar as its flag bearer for the same elections scheduled to hold on February 18, 2023.

For the two major political parties, it is a clear case of two houses that is divided against themselves. And the gulf within the two parties have continued to widen even as the official date for the commencement of campaigns for the 2023 general elections draws nearer.

Rather that have peace and unity after the conventions which held in Abuja, the two major political parties seem to have murdered sleep and sleep have continued to elude them ever since. As the days go by, the major gladiators in the two parties dig in deeper and stronger in their trenches spoiling for war.

The rumble under the umbrella

For the PDP, trouble started even before the conclusion of the primaries following the dramatic manner Sokoto State governor, Aminu Tambuwal steeped down from the race, a move which pulled the rug off the feet of Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike, who was almost coasting home to victory, came a dramatic second behind Atiku Abubakar.

Fuming with anger, Wike lamented the last minute betrayal by Tambuwal, his erstwhile political confidant and political strategist. Political pundits had predicted that Wike would have picked the ticket if Tambuwal had not withdrawn from the race and urged his supporters to cast their votes for the former Vice president, Wike would have given Atiku a bloody nose.

Atiku had displayed an undue political arrogance in the build-up to the primaries as he rebuffed moves by the four presidential aspirants from the North to come up with a consensus candidate. The former Vice President had thought that it would be an easy ride for him. He was however shocked at the turnout of events on the eve of the primaries.

The sudden stepping down of Tambuwal and his directive to his supporters to cast their votes for Atiku was what saved the former vice president and also swung victory to his side. Wike had felt betrayed and has since then been running wild like a wounded bull.

……the many gaffes from the umbrella

PDP started digging a hole for its collapse shortly after the convention with the declaration by the national chairman, Prof Iyorchir Ayu that “Tambuwal was the hero of the convention”. That declaration was said to have opened new fresh wounds especially within the Wike camp that was trying to come to terms with the defeat in the hands of Atiku with the help of Tambuwal.

Even before the convention, shortly after he emerged as the national chairman of PDP, Ayu had pledged to step down should the flag bearer of the main opposition party emerge from the northern part of the country. When eventually the presidential candidate of the party emerged from the North, Ayu rather than keep to his words have brushed aside the demand from the Wike camp that he step aside in order for a southerner to assume the chairmanship of the party.

Atiku was also said to have assured Wike that Ayu would step down since the two top party officials are from the North. Atiku is now very ambivalent on the continued stay of Ayu as the national chairman of PDP, a situation that have further strengthened the Wike camp in accusing the former vice president of not keeping to his words. The Wike camp has continued to insist that the resignation of Ayu will signal the readiness of Atiku and PDP towards ensuring a lasting peace going into the general elections.

Another major unguarded statement that is further rocking the peace and unity of the opposition party was the understanding between Wike and Atiku. Atiku was said to have promised the Rivers governor that he would be his Running mate going into the elections. Atiku had set up a committee to shortlist a suitable candidate and the committee was said to have strongly recommended Wike.

However, to the consternation of all, Atiku has announced the Delta State governor, Dr Ifeanyi Okowa as his running mate. The move by Atiku to name   Okowa as his running mate did not go down well with the Wike camp and other stakeholders in the party. The action of the former vice president is further lending credence to the Wike camp that Atiku may not be a man to be trusted.

As things stand now, there seems to be no backing down by both Wike and the Atiku camps in the buildup to the elections. The insistence pf Ayu to remain despite his earlier pledge to step down should PDP flag bearer emerge from the North is seen by many political observers as mark of betrayal of trust going into the elections. And to add salt to injury, Ayu had dismissed those calling for his resignation as “children”, a statement that further angered the Wike camp.

Wike is not alone in insisting that Ayu should step down as a first step to a lasting peace in the party that was in power for 16 years before losing to APC in the 2015 general elections. Filing solidly behind Wike are the Samuel Ortom, Seyi Makinde, Okezie Ikpeazu and Ifeanyi Ugwuanyi, governors of Benue, Oyo, Abia and Enugu States respectively. Also in the camp of Wike are Chief Bode George, a founding member of PDP who is insisting that the PDP Chairman should come from the South West.

Wike camp pulls out of Atiku Campaign

Any incline that the trouble within the umbrella is about to abate is in for a serious shock. This is because the Wike camp has pulled out of the Atiku campaign, a move seen by political analysts as a deadly blow to the PDP move to wrestle power from the ruling APC come 2023 general elections. In what looked like a panic measure, the PDP flag bearer quickly issued a statement personally signed by him, urging all aggrieved party members planning to quit the party or stay away from the campaign to have a rethink.  

Key party stakeholders are already sounding a note of warning that PDP cannot afford to go into the general elections as a divided house. One of such stakeholders is Dr. Sani Adamu. Adamu, known as one of the loyalists of the former Vice President, had described Wike as “a symbol of party loyalty” and faulted the treatment meted to the Rivers governor.

Adamu stated that Wike must be given due respect, warning that it is only by according Wike the respect he deserves that would strengthen the bond of unity in the main opposition party. He further warned that “the PDP would be heading for a destined failure at the polls if Wike is not brought back on board”.

The PDP chieftain urged his party hierarchy to close ranks and meet Wike’s demands, pointing out that “APC’s only chance is the continued rift between Wike and Atiku, warning that the rift alone can cause PDP the 2023 general elections”. 

His words: “Let us not deceive ourselves, Governor Wike holds the four aces. PDP will implode in the 2023 elections woefully without his support. When people say Wike controls only Rivers or South-south, it makes me laugh. They forget that this is the man who garnered 237 votes in the last presidential primaries and remembers that South-south as a whole has only 129 delegates. This is to show you that Wike’s tentacles are spread all over the country, his nomination form is secured by some northern support base”.

…..Atiku fights back, moves to break Wike camp

In a deft move aimed at breaking the camp of the Rivers state governor, Atiku on Monday night, announced the appointment of two former Senate presidents Anyim Pius Anyim and Bukola and four others as Special Advisers in his Peoples Democratic Party (PDP) presidential campaign team.

Others appointed alongside the two former senate presidents are Sen. Ibrahim Shekarau; former Gov. Olagunsoye Oyinlola of Osun and Sen. Ehigie Uzamere. Also appointed by Atiku into his presidential council is the immediate past Chairman of PDP, Mr Uche Secondus.

Atiku through his Media Adviser, Mr Paul Ibe in Abuja, said the that the appointments were aimed at strengthening the team.  Atiku said that all the appointments took immediate effect. He had charged the appointees to use their vast political experiences in ensuring that the PDP presidential campaign recorded resounding success in the 2023 election.

Political analysts said the appointrment was part of strategic moves by the former vice president to cut the Rivers State governor, Nyesom Wike to size. Wike has engaged in running battle with Atiku and the main opposistion party since the end of the PDp convention that produced Atiku as its flag bearer.

It is believed that the move by the former vice president would rattle the camp loyal to Wike. Atiku is known to be a political fighter and it is believed that he would eventually break the Rivers governor and give him full control of the affairs of the party.

The scattered broom

Ordinarily, what is happening in PDP should have been to the maximum advantage of the ruling APC had it been that its own house is in order. As the opposition PDP is having headache, APC on their part is also battling with running stomach. Thus their own ailment is not allowing them to pop champagne to celebrate the rumble going on in the opposition party 

Immediately Tinubu, a muslim from the south western part of the country secured the ticket of the party to fly its flag in the 2023 general elections, it was taken for granted that his running mate would naturally be a Christian from the northern part of the country. Thus, prominent names like former Secretary to the Government of the Federation (SGF), Babachir Lwal, former Deputy Speaker of the House of Representatives, Yakubu Dogara and the current SGF, Boss Mustafa were touted as potential running mates to Tinubu.

However, against the predictions of political, the former Lagos state governor between 1999 and 2007, settled for the former governor of Borno state, Kashim Shetima. It was only Abiola and Babgana Kingibe that ran a joint muslim-muslim ticket and that was 29 years ago. Then, the nation’s ethno-religious fault lines have never been so pronounced.

The action of Tinubu and endorsed by a cross section of APC apparatchik, did not go down well with not just Christians within the ruling party but also others who felt that the choice of a muslim-muslim ticket smacks of religious insensitivity on the part of the ruling party.

To say that that the choice of a muslim-muslim ticket did not ruffle feathers within the ranks of APC is to engage in self-denial.  Christains of northern extraction in the APC had kicked against such move, describing it as a deliberate attempt to stifle christains from the northern part of the country.   

Prominent christain northerners have kicked and continue to kick against the choice of the APC. Lawal, Mustapha and Dogara all heavy weight APC members have frowned at the choice of Tinubu and this has ruffled not a few feathers within the ranks of the ruling party going into the elections next year. According to them, the muslim-muslim ticket adopted by their party is wrong step in the wrong direct and may spell doom for the party in the forthcoming elections.

The Christain Association of Nigeria (CAN), the umbrella body of christains in the country noted that such arrangement would not work in today’s Nigeria. CAN through it Adamawa State Chapter further noted that “Such action is repugnant and discriminatory”.

The Christain body who spoke recently through the Catholic Bishop of Yola Diocese Bishop Dami Mamza said “that no amount of rigging can make a Muslim-Muslim or a Christian-Christian ticket win in Nigeria this particular time.

“Nigeria of 1993 when Abiola and Kingibe were fielded on a joint ticket is not the same Nigeria of 2022 and 2023 as the political dynamics have completely changed,” the CAN chairman said. He reiterated that Nigeria of nearly 30 years ago when a Muslim-Muslim ticket was tolerated has changed, adding that such ticket would today be seen as politics of exclusion.

He said the prevailing idea of a northern candidate seeking a running mate from the South and a southern candidate looking to the North for a running mate is to achieve inclusion, a principle which same-religion ticket will negate. He advised the parties to avoid dividing Nigerians along religious lines.

And APC differs PCC inauguration

As a sign that all is not well with the ruling party, its presidential campaign council inauguration earlier scheduled for today has been put on hold indefinitely.  While the director general of the APC-PCC and governor of Plateau State, Mr Simon Larlong attributed the postponement to the need to accommodate growing number of people who want to be associated with the Tinubu presidential campaign, political analysts said the postponement was informed by two factors namely the state of health of the Tinubu who is away overseas on medical tourism and the need to address internal wrangling in the ruling party.

Political analysts said that it would be a major disaster for the council to be inaugurated without the presidential candidate being physically present at such a landmark ceremony. According to them, “if the PCC is inaugurated without Tinubu being in attendance, it will give wings to the rumours flying round that Tinubu’s health status would not cope with the rigours of presidential campaign.

Another proof that all is not well with the APC-PCC is the push to replace its spokesperson, Mr Festus Keyamo. Keyamo is said not to be the choice of some key insiders in the party and is believed to have started on a wrong note by his utterances which tend to demarket the ruling party and the few achievements of the out-going president.  

Only on Monday, Mr Joe Igbokwe, an APC stalwart lamented his exclusion in the APC-PCC saying that those who do not work for the party gets rewarded while those who toil for the party are always ignored.

Will LP and NNPP benefit from the rumble?

The question on the lips of Nigerians now is; will the Labour Party (LP) and the New Nigeria Peoples Party (NNPP) benefit from the rumble rocking the two major   political parties. While Peter Obi flies the Lp flag, Rabiu Kwankwaso is the standard bearer of NNPP. As it stands now, most Nigerians especially the youths and others below the 50 years of age are fed up with the politicians that populate the PDP and APC. To these class of Nigerians, the crop of politicians whom they believe has held the country down in the last 50 years.

These Nigerians see the crisis rocking the two major political parties as a further proof that the two parties have nothing new to offer Nigerians, just as the crisis rocking PDP and APC is reinforcing their resolve to kick them out of power come 2023 general elections.

The emergence of Peter Obi as the flag bearer of the Labour Party was initially dismissed with a wave of hand. The former Anambra State governor and his party were social media party without any structure. The traditional politicians from the APC and PDP had argued that the Obi and his followers would fizille out even before the elections.

However, the momentum the Obi supporters and loyalists who call themselves, the Obi-dients are gathering and still gather every passing day is said to be causing sleepless nights in the camps of Bola Ahmed Tinubu and Atiku Abubakar of APC and PDP respectively. Many political analysts see the choice of Yusuf Ahmed Datti, Obi’s running mate as a master stroke that further ruffled the feathers of the two main political parties.

Again, the solidarity marches organized by the Obi-dients across the country in recent weeks have further sent shivers down the spines of the traditional politicians. From Lagos to Calabar, Kano to Jalingo, Onitsha to Ilorin, Labour party is maing a statement and it is very clear from that stament that it not a party to be ignored in the February general election.  The Obi-dients are pushing to enthrone a new paradigm shift in the nation’s political history.

It will amount to stating the obvious that an average Nigerian is not disenchanted with both PDP and APC,. To these Nigerians made of students, market women, the army of unemployed youths including pensioners, Peter Obi and his a Labour Party offers a new lease of life and glimmer of hope going into the general elections. Marches have been organized across the country to drum up support for the LP and its candidate

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