With Jonathan, Defections Won’t Derail the PDP

The recent wave of defections from the Peoples Democratic Party (PDP)
to rival platforms such as the All Progressives Congress (APC) and the
African Democratic Congress (ADC) has understandably dominated
political discourse. With the 2027 general elections drawing closer, these
movements have sparked speculation about the PDP’s viability and
electoral strength. However, while defections are not inconsequential,
they are far from fatal. In fact, the PDP remains a resilient political
force—one that could even surge ahead if it fields former President
Goodluck Jonathan as its presidential candidate.
To begin with, the PDP is still Nigeria’s leading opposition party. Despite
the loss of some governors and legislators, no other opposition party
matches its national spread, institutional depth, and electoral
infrastructure. The party continues to boast a significant number of
governors, National Assembly members, and local government officials.
These figures are not just symbolic—they represent the backbone of
political mobilization and governance across the country.
The concern over defections is understandable. Governors and
legislators wield influence, control resources, and often serve as the face
of their parties in their respective domains. Their departure can create
temporary vacuums and raise questions about funding and grassroots
mobilisation. In Nigeria’s political landscape, where money plays a
pivotal role in campaigns and logistics, losing state-level purse holders
can appear to be a major setback.
Yet, the PDP’s response to these defections has been anything but
panicked. Instead, it has demonstrated maturity, strategic thinking, and a
deep understanding of democratic principles. Governor Bala Mohammed
of Bauchi State, who chairs the PDP Governors’ Forum, has consistently
emphasised that the constitution guarantees freedom of association. His
refusal to vilify defectors, coupled with his acknowledgement that he

holds no special powers over his fellow governors, reflects a political
philosophy rooted in inclusion and constitutionalism.
More importantly, Bala Mohammed’s leadership has helped galvanise
the PDP Governors’ Forum into a unifying force within the party. Under
his stewardship, the Forum has become a rallying point for various
organs of the PDP—including the National Working Committee (NWC),
the Board of Trustees (BOT), the National Assembly caucus, the
committee of former ministers headed by the indefatigable Tanimu
Turaki, and the Elders Committee. By inviting these bodies to joint meetings, the Forum has fostered a culture of collaboration and consensus-building, helping the party navigate internal challenges and maintain cohesion.

One of the most telling examples of the Forum’s statesmanship was its decision to zone the presidency to the South. This move, which effectively shelved Bala Mohammed’s own presidential ambition, underscores the Forum’s commitment to national unity and stability over personal ambition. In a political climate often dominated by self-interest, this gesture of sacrifice and strategic foresight has elevated the PDP’s credibility and moral standing. It signals to Nigerians that the party is willing to subsume individual aspirations for the greater good—a trait sorely lacking in the current political establishment.

Governor Seyi Makinde of Oyo State has also contributed to the PDP’s
dignified response. Rather than amplifying the defections, Makinde has
redirected attention to the more pressing issues of hunger and poverty.
His remark that the “mother of all defections” would occur when hunger
defects to the APC is both witty and profound. It captures the frustration
of millions of Nigerians who feel abandoned by the ruling party and
underscores the PDP’s potential to position itself as the party of empathy
and solutions.

Meanwhile, Governor Ahmadu Fintiri of Adamawa State, who chairs the PDP’s National Convention Committee, has shown remarkable focus and dedication. Known for his developmental strides in Adamawa, Fintir has brought his organizational acumen to bear on the convention planning process. His hands-on approach and commitment to excellence reflect the kind of leadership the PDP continues to nurture—leaders who are not only politically astute but also development-oriented. In this role, he is ably supported by no less a person than the calm and calculated Tanimu Turaki, a senior advocate who has carved for himself a reputation as a peace maker, bridge builder and problem solver within the party. But how will these defections affect the 2027 elections? While no one can predict the future with certainty, several factors suggest that the impact will be limited.

First, the electoral value of defectors is not guaranteed. In a political
environment where voters are increasingly disillusioned with
opportunistic politicians, defections may be viewed with scepticism
rather than enthusiasm. Many defectors claim to have consulted their
constituents, but in reality, these decisions are often made by a small
clique of insiders. The electorate is becoming more discerning, and by
2027, the disconnect between political elites and the people may be too
wide to bridge with mere party-switching.

Second, the assumption that control of state structures automatically
translates to electoral victory was debunked in the 2023 elections. The
performance of Peter Obi, the Labour Party candidate, showed that
popular sentiment can override traditional political machinery. Nigerians
are increasingly voting based on perceived integrity, competence, and
vision—not just party affiliation.
This brings us to the most compelling argument: the potential candidacy
of former President Goodluck Jonathan. If the PDP fields Jonathan in
2027, it could dramatically alter the political landscape. Despite attempts
to diminish his legacy, many Nigerians now look back on his tenure with
nostalgia. His administration was marked by relative economic stability,
national unity, and a commitment to democratic principles.
Jonathan’s appeal is broad and deep. In the North, his policies on
agriculture and education resonated with local aspirations. His
constitutional limitation to a single term makes him a transitional
figure—one who can restore stability without the threat of long-term
entrenchment. In the South-South and South-East, his candidacy would
likely trigger a wave of support that could overwhelm any advantage the
APC hopes to gain from defections.

Moreover, the electorate is increasingly aware that many defections are
driven by personal gain rather than ideological conviction. This
awareness could backfire on the defectors, especially if they are seen as
abandoning principles for convenience. In contrast, Jonathan’s
candidacy would be seen as a return to a more inclusive, empathetic,
and competent leadership.

Even the defection of Governor Douye Diri of Bayelsa—Jonathan’s
home state—would not be enough to derail his momentum. If anything, it
would be viewed as a desperate attempt to undermine a candidacy that
promises to unify and uplift the nation. The hurricane of support that
Jonathan would unleash in the South-South and South-East cannot be
stopped by defections. As PDP governors have rightly noted, the next
election will not be between parties alone—it will be between the APC
and the millions of traumatised, shortchanged, and frustrated Nigerians
yearning for change.
In conclusion, while defections may create temporary ripples, they are
not strong enough to sink the PDP. The party’s mature leadership,
strategic decisions, and potential to field a unifying candidate like
Goodluck Jonathan position it as a formidable contender in 2027. The
PDP is not just surviving—it is recalibrating, reconnecting, and preparing
to reclaim its place in Nigeria’s political future.